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September 2018 Climate Summary

The province experienced most of its rainfall in the West Coast, Cape Winelands and Overberg (slide 1), resulting in largely above normal conditions (slide 2).  The Karoo regions had to be contented with poor rains, resulting in extremely below normal conditions.  The southern coastal region, where precipitation was more visible, obtained normal to below normal rainfall. 

 

With regard to weather station data (slide 3, total monthly rainfall, mean monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and historical long term means) for September, the overall rainfall seem to be much better than the long term counterpart.  Various towns received more than 100mm (Clanwilliam, Grabouw, Ceres, Paarl, Rawsonville (249mm), Stellenbosch and Sandveld) while other places indicated less rainfall but still achieving more than their long term means (Caledon, Elands Bay, Klawer, Kliprand, Hopefield, Piketberg, Porterville, Swellendam, Vredendal and Worcester).  Conversely, there were towns in the Karoo regions that received less than half of their normal rainfall.  Since the province as a whole experienced better rains for September compared to that of last year, the trend regarding improvement of rainfall in the province continued.

slide 1

Slide1

slide 2

Slide2

Monthly maximum temperatures (Celsius) during September (slide 3) were on average below normal (19.7 vs 21.6 = -1.9 degrees), ranging between 14.9 (De Keur, near Ceres) to 22.6 (Klawer) degrees.  The average of the monthly mean minimum temperatures for September were reasonably normal (±7.5 degrees), ranging between 0.2 degrees (Murraysburg) to the highest 11.4 degrees (Klawer).

 

The good rains during September resulted in increasing the overall water level of provincial state dams from the previous month’s 58% to 66% on 1st October (slide 4).

 

The good rains that occurred during the winter in the western side of the province resulted in better agricultural production conditions (green shading) in the West Coast, Overberg, including the western parts of Cape Winelands (slide 5).  The eastern side of the province, notably those areas subjected to lack of sufficient follow-up rains as in the Karoo regions (orange / red shading), resulted in poor veld growing conditions.

 Download Slide 3 PDF

slide 3

Slide 3

slide 4

Slide4

slide 5

Slide5


The latest rainfall forecasts (slides 6 & 7) do not present good rainfall for the Western Cape during the following months.  On the one hand the ROC maps lack confidence for the forecasting period OND (slide 6), though this specific forecast (large map) indicates a reasonable chance for above normal rains.  The NDJ period (slide 7) on the other hand suggests less chance for rain which is actually supported by more confidence.  


slide 6

Slide6

Slide 7

Slide7


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Agri-Oulook September 2018

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