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October 2019 Climate Summary

During October the western half of the province received mostly normal to above normal rainfall, while the Karoo and Garden Route regions conversely obtained below normal rainfall (slide 1). Rainfall monitored at various weather stations (slide 2) indicate that the highest monthly total rainfall (123mm vs historical long-term mean 41mm) for October occurred near Rawsonville (Cape Winelands), with more places in the West Coast, Overberg and Cape Winelands receiving more rain than the long-term means. On the other side of the province, between 0 – 5mm rain were recorded in the Central Karoo, while about 50% of the normal rains occurred in George, Mossel Bay and Riversdale areas.

Slide 2 also included monthly mean temperatures (Celsius) which tend to be similar to the long-term statistics for October. The state dams in the province retained an average water level of 67% (4th November), with the Theewaterskloof and Clanwilliam dams respectively at 75% and 92%. Dam levels in the Karoo regions still remained disturbingly low while dams in the Southern Cape ranged between 50 to 60%.

The ongoing absence of above normal rains in the Karoo and Matzikama areas (slide 3) has resulted in extreme drought conditions (dark red shading). Observations from the same map clearly show how conditions of cereal crops have deteriorated, this time also in the Swartland. However, the latter should be seen in context, meaning that the increased intensity (i.e. red shading) in the cereal production areas also being a sign of progress in the harvesting of these crops.

slide 1

Slide1

slide 2

Slide2

As for the latest seasonal forecasts with regard to the summer period, SAWS (http://www.weathersa.co.za/) and Landman (https://tinyurl.com/ybrb3a72) do not present any relief in the form of substantial rain over large areas. Contrary to the latter, Landman presents a strong signal for below normal rains and above normal temperature in the Western Cape. A slight possibility of rain can be expected from February onwards in the extreme south western parts of the province.

 Download Slide 2 PDF

slide 3

Slide3

 

 



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Agri-Oulook October 2019

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