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June 2019 Climate Summary

Rainfall improved during June within the south-western region of the province, resulting in average conditions.  The eastern side of the province received less optimistic rainfall, with the Central Karoo and Matzikama remaining at critically below normal levels.  June experienced the first overall increase in dam levels for the year by reaching a combined figure of 39%.  So far no positive signs were evident in overall response to veld / crop conditions to recent rains.  Current forecasts remain positive for rains during following months, while a tendency towards above normal temperatures remains present.

The province on the whole received reasonable rain for June when comparing to previous months.  The southwestern areas obtained normal rains in June while areas to the east clearly received below normal rainfall (slide 1).  Statistics (slide 2) presented an improvement in rainfall over most of the province compared to the previous month, except for the Central Karoo which remained critically below normal (Murraysburg 1.6mm vs LT mean of 12mm).  The highest rainfall of 156mm for June (vs LT mean 154mm) was recorded near Rawsonville.

The overall monthly mean maximum temperatures (Celsius) averaged 21 degrees, presenting an anomaly of +2 degrees for June.  The highest monthly Tmax was recorded at Klawer (24.5 degrees), which is 2.2 degrees warmer than the corresponding long term mean.  The overall monthly mean minimum temperature of 6.9 degrees was reasonably normal with the lowest Tmin recorded at Murraysburg (-0.1 degrees).  Extreme monthly Tmax anomalies of ≥ +3 degrees were recorded at Ladismith, Oudtshoorn, Clanwilliam, Sandveld, and Lutzville.  Ladismith also recorded +3.2 degrees anomaly for monthly mean Tmin.

slide 1

Slide1

slide 2

Slide2

The positive rainfall in the western parts pushed up the overall provincial dam level to 39% (1st July), i.e. the same as previous year’s level.  The effect of the continuing drought (expressed by the extensive red shading in slide 3) in the Karoo regions and northern parts of the West Coast remains a major concern.

The latest seasonal forecasts for rain (slides 4 to 6 covering July to November) continue to show positive signs for above normal rains (blue shading) during the following months, especially in the case of Aug-Sep-October image (slide 5).  There seems some concern for below normal rainfall conditions (orange / red) to remain prevalent for the eastern to north eastern side of the province.

 Download Slide 2 PDF

slide 3

Slide3

slide 4

Slide4


Conditions with regard to maximum temperatures (presented by slides 7 to 9 covering July to November) show dominantly above normal maximum temperatures (orange / red shading).  Note that skill levels, depicted by adjoining ROC maps, do unfortunately not support the relevant predictions.  


slide 5

Slide5

Slide 6

Slide6


slide 7

Slide7

Slide 8

Slide8


slide 9

Slide9


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Agri-Oulook June 2019

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