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June 2018 Climate Summary

The province experienced typical winter rains during June, meaning that the western side of the province gained good rains while the eastern side much less (slide 1).  In comparison to the long term average rainfall (slide 2), large parts within the western side experienced mostly normal to above normal rains (West Coast, Cape Winelands and Overberg), while below normal rainfall were mostly prevalent to the eastern side of the province (Karoo and southern coastal regions).  Large areas to the east of the Central Karoo had to cope with extremely below normal rains (red areas). 

Slide 3 (consists of data from 38 weather stations made up of total monthly rainfall, mean monthly maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) and historical long term means) shows that rainfall for June on average compared reasonably well with the long term (57 vs 64mm), but the median differed (36 vs 56mm).  The highest total monthly rainfall (249mm) occurred near Rawsonville, while various weather stations recorded rains more than 100mm (Elsenburg, Ceres, Paarl, Stellenbosch, ect.).  Conversely towns more to the eastern side of the province received less than half of their normal rainfall include Ladismith, Mossel Bay, Riversdale, De Rust, Merweville, Rietbron, ect.  All in all, the trend of improvement in rains within the traditional winter rainfall areas continued during June this year.

slide 1

Slide1

slide 2

Slide2

Maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) Temperatures (Celsius) in June (slide 3) indicated nearly 1 degrees below average, resulting in an overall average of 19.7 degrees (i.e. Tmax) and 7.3 degrees (Tmin).  Tmax for June ranged between 15.0 (Ceres area) to 22.6 degrees (Klawer), while Tmin ranged from 0.2 (Murraysburg) to 10.0 degrees (Klawer).

Rainfall during June increased the overall water level of provincial state dams (slide 4) from last month’s 19% to 41% (3rd July).

Good rains that occurred in the western side of the province can be noted from the Vegetation Conditions Index map (slide 5), revealing better growing conditions in the Swartland, which could result in an improvement in winter cereal crops this year compared to last year’s.  The Overberg and southern coastal areas remain a major concern this year in terms of poor growing conditions due to lack of sufficient rains.  Similarly, the Matzikama, Central and Little Karoo reveal predominantly poor veld growth response..

 Download Slide 3 PDF

slide 3

Slide 3

slide 4

Slide4

slide 5

Slide5


The latest rainfall forecasts (slides 6 & 7) favour above normal rains for the Western Cape during the following winter months.  Unfortunately these favourable forecasts are not substantiated with reasonable confidence levels (ROC area maps), though the West Coast could indicate better conditions for rain. .  


slide 6

Slide6

Slide 7

Slide7


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Agri-Oulook May 2018

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