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June 2016 Climate Summary

Most rainfall during June occurred in the western side of the province (slide 1).  When comparing the month’s rainfall against the historical long term means (slide 2) then most of the province experienced normal to above normal rains, excluding areas like the metropole, Matzikama (north of Vredendal), parts of Murraysburg, Overberg and parts of Eden which obtained below normal rainfall.

slide 1

Slide1

slide 2

Slide2

 

Slide 3 contains data from various weather stations which include total monthly rainfall, mean monthly maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) for June 2016 with corresponding historical long term means.  Total rainfall for June 2016 ranged between 9.2mm (near Swellendam) to 174mm (Ceres area) in comparison to the long term means which ranged between 9.5 (Merweville) to 131mm (Rawsonville).  In addition, half of the number of weather stations recorded less than 47mm of rain (long term 58mm) compared to May’s 33mm.  The average rainfall for June 2016 (62mm) this year, calculated from monthly rainfall for all the weather stations, was reasonably similar to the long term figure of 65mm.

 

Temperature for the various weather stations dropped from May to June by an average of 4ºC (Tmax) and 3ºC (Tmin) to monthly averages of 19.3ºC (Tmax) and 6.2ºC (Tmin) with the latter appearing reasonably similar to the corresponding long term means.  Tmax for the various weather stations ranged between 15.7ºC to 22.5ºC (long term 14.6 to 21.8ºC) while Tmin ranged between 2.3ºC to 10.0ºC (long term -0.6 to 9.8ºC).  Tmax anomalies ranged between 0.1ºC to 2.0ºC, while in the case of Tmin anomalies ranged between -1.6ºC to 2.9 ºC.

 Download Slide 3 PDF

 

slide 3

Slide 3

In terms of monthly average temperatures Murraysburg and Klawer experienced respectively the lowest Tmin and highest Tmax in the province during June.

 

Slide 4 displays a brief overview of provincial state dam levels recorded on 4th July averaging 43% for the province (last year 49%).  The water content level of some dams increased due to recent rains.  The water content level of the Floriskraal Dam was 27% (last year 42%).

The dry spell of May 2016 left its mark over the various areas of the province in terms of below normal plant growing conditions (slide 5).  For instance the West Coast clearly displays areas of deterioration i.e. increase in orange to red areas in Matzikama and Velddrif areas.  The Central Karoo shows signs of recovery in certain areas (greener) previously affected by the ongoing drought.  Remaining smaller areas showing poor veld growing conditions are still subjected to the current drought spell. Winter cereal production areas point out plants experiencing stressful conditions due to poor rainfall, though signs of relief are noted in parts of the Southern Cape.

 

slide 4

Slide 4

slide 5

Slide 5


Climate predictions

The transition of ENSO from current neutral conditions sliding towards La Niña is likely from spring onwards (slide 6).  The possibility of rains emerging from the latter can possibly be suppressed due to the presence of prevailing IOD (-) and SAM (+) conditions. 
Seasonal forecasts for the period August to October concerning Western Cape (slides 7 & 8): 
SAWS predicts above normal rainfall in western side of the province, with below normal conditions forecasted for the eastern side of the province.  CSAG indicates normal rains for August and September, but September being drier than normal.  As for temperature, high probability exists for below normal Tmax conditions.  Both CSAG and SAWS advises users to review updated medium and short term forecasts to identify any intermediate change.

slide 6

Slide 6

slide 7

Slide 7

slide 8

Slide 8


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Agri-Oulook March 2016

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