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July 2018 Climate Summary

The province experienced most of its rain in the West Coast, Cape Winelands and Overberg while lower rains occurred in the Eden and Central Karoo districts (slide 1).  In comparison to the long term average rainfall (slide 2), parts of the West Coast, Cape Winelands and Overberg received mostly normal to above normal rains.  The eastern side of the province (Karoo and southern coastal regions) received mostly below normal rain.   In comparison to last year, July this year experienced much better rain

Slide 3 (data from ±35 weather stations indicating total monthly rainfall, mean monthly maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) and historical long term means) shows that rainfall for July on average compared reasonably well (averaging 75%) with the long term.  The highest total monthly rainfall (90mm) occurred near Rawsonville, while some weather stations recorded rains ≥50mm (Elsenburg, Ceres, Paarl, Vredendal, Grabouw, Clanwilliam, Caledon, Worcester, ect.).  Conversely towns more to the eastern side of the province received less than half of their normal rainfall quota include Ladismith, Mossel Bay, Riversdale, Murraysburg, Rietbron, George, ect.  All in all, the trend of improvement in rains within traditional winter rainfall areas continued during July.

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slide 1

Slide1

slide 2

Slide2

Maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures (Celsius) in July (slide 3) resulted in temperatures performing above the long term average (21.1 vs 18.9 = 2.2 degrees).  The monthly mean Tmax ranged between 17.4 (De Keur, near Ceres) to 24.6 (Klawer) degrees.  Anomalies ranged between 1.2 (Murraysburg, Porterville and Worcester) to 3.7 degrees (Oudtshoorn).  The monthly mean Tmin for July (6.8) averaged 1.1 degrees above the long term mean, while ranging between -1.7 (Murraysburg) to 10.8 degrees (Klawer).

Rainfall during July increased the overall water level of provincial state dams (slide 4) from last month’s 41% to 50% (30th July), doubling 2017’s levels.

It is clear that the good rains occurring in the western side of the province show better growing conditions in the Swartland, and Overberg (slide 5).  The eastern side of the province remain a major concern in terms of poor growing conditions due to lack of sufficient and follow-up rains.

 Download Slide 3 PDF

slide 3

Slide 3

slide 4

Slide4

slide 5

Slide5


The latest rainfall forecasts (slide 6) favour above normal rains for the Western Cape, however these favourable forecasts are not supported by the appropriate probabilities (ROC area maps).  While a similar trend is followed for Sep-Oct-Nov (slide 7) for the western side of the province, the eastern side of the province tend to shift towards below normal rains. But then again, the necessary probabilities remain absent to support the forecast as shown in slide 7.  


slide 6

Slide6

Slide 7

Slide7


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Agri-Oulook July 2018

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