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July 2016 Climate Summary

Most rainfall during July occurred in the south western side of the province (slide 1), while the north eastern side of the province, meaning in the Central Karoo, experienced the least rainfall.  Comparing the month’s rainfall against the historical long term means (slide 2), show that most of the province experienced normal to above normal rains, excluding areas in the West Coast and Murraysburg which obtained below normal rains.

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slide 1

Slide1

Slide 2

Slide2

 

Slide 3 contains data from various weather stations which include total monthly rainfall, mean monthly maximum (Tmax) and minimum temperatures (Tmin) for July 2016 with corresponding historical long term means.  The total rainfall recorded at the various weather stations ranged between 5mm (Rietbron) to 133mm (Rawsonville) resulting in an overall average of 49mm which happened to be reasonably similar to long term average of 52mm.  However, note that half of these weather stations recorded less than 37mm of rain (versus long term average 48mm) which reveal extremely above normal rainfall recorded at isolated weather stations.

 

Monthly mean temperatures recorded at the various weather stations dropped from June to July by an average of 1ºC (Tmax) and 0.6ºC (Tmin) to 18.3ºC (Tmax) and 5.6ºC (Tmin) with the latter appearing reasonably similar to the corresponding long term means.  Tmax for the various weather stations ranged between 14.8ºC to 22.1ºC (long term average 14.6 - 22.4ºC) while Tmin ranged between -0.6ºC to 9.3ºC (long term average -1.4 to 9.4ºC).  Tmax anomalies ranged between -2.5ºC to 1.1ºC, while in the case of Tmin anomalies ranged between -1.9ºC to 1.4ºC.  

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slide 3

Slide 3

As for extreme instances regarding monthly mean temperatures, Murraysburg and Klawer experienced respectively the lowest Tmin and highest Tmax in the province for July 2016 as well as in the case of the long term mean.

 

Slide 4 displays a brief overview of the state of provincial dam levels averaging 58% (last year 66%) on 15th August.  The water content level of some dams, mostly on the western side of the province, increased due to recent rains.  The water content of the Floriskraal Dam still prevailed at a low level of 30% (last year 42%).

 

Poor plant growing conditions (slide 5) remained in Matzikama, Central Karoo and Eden (indicated by shades of orange to red); Murraysburg has been recently added to this list.  On the other hand, areas that have experienced good rainfall indicate relief in terms of improved plant growing conditions within the cereal winter production areas.

 

Slide 4

Slide 4

slide 5

Slide 5


Climate predictions

ENSO remains neutral (slide 6), however the probability of rains emerging from the latter can be suppressed due to the presence of prevailing IOD (-) and SAM (+) conditions.  Seasonal forecasts for the period September to November concerning Western Cape (slides 7 & 8) tend to favour below normal rainfall conditions.  Temperatures forecasts (SAWS) indicate spring and summer seasons to be warmer than normal.  Due to high uncertainty in forecasts, CSAG and SAWS advises users to regularly review updated medium and short term forecasts to identify any intermediate change.

Slide 6

Slide 6

Slide 7

Slide 7

Slide 8

Slide 8


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Agri-Oulook July 2016

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